Testing for Underpowered Literatures (2406.13122v1)

Abstract: How many experimental studies would have come to different conclusions had they been run on larger samples? I show how to estimate the expected number of statistically significant results that a set of experiments would have reported had their sample sizes all been counterfactually increased by a chosen factor. The estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Unlike existing methods, my approach requires no assumptions about the distribution of true effects of the interventions being studied other than continuity. This method includes an adjustment for publication bias in the reported t-scores. An application to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in top economics journals finds that doubling every experiment's sample size would only increase the power of two-sided t-tests by 7.2 percentage points on average. This effect is small and is comparable to the effect for systematic replication projects in laboratory psychology where previous studies enabled accurate power calculations ex ante. These effects are both smaller than for non-RCTs. This comparison suggests that RCTs are on average relatively insensitive to sample size increases. The policy implication is that grant givers should generally fund more experiments rather than fewer, larger ones.