Quantifying Influencer Effects on Affective Polarization

In an era where digital platforms increasingly mediate public discourse, grasping the complexities and nuances in affective polarization--especially as influenced by key figures on social media--has never been more vital. This study explore the intricate web of interactions on Twitter, now rebranded as 'X', to unravel how influencer-led conversations catalyze shifts in public sentiment, laying bare the complex dynamics that underpin online polarization. Employing a novel methodological framework that includes counterfactual analysis, we analyze scenarios with and without specific influencer-led conversations. Our findings illuminate the significant role influencers play in shaping public discourse, offering insights into the mechanisms of online polarization and suggesting pathways for future research to mitigate divisiveness and explore new methods for quantifying affective polarization. This research contributes to the broader understanding of digital communication's impact on societal polarization, underscoring the importance of detailed analysis in developing strategies to foster a more cohesive digital public sphere.