Exploring sustainable pathways for urban traffic decarbonization: vehicle technologies, management strategies, and driving behaviour

The global fight against climate change and air pollution prioritizes the transition to sustainable transportation options. Understanding the impacts of various sustainable pathways on emissions, travel time, and costs is crucial for researchers and policymakers. This research conducts a comprehensive microsimulation of traffic and emissions in downtown Toronto, Canada, to examine decarbonization scenarios. The resulting 140 scenarios involve different fuel types, Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) penetration rates, and routing strategies combined with driving style. To achieve this, transformers-based prediction models accurately forecast Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) emissions and average speed for eco-routing. The study finds that 100% battery electric vehicles have the lowest GHG emissions, showing their potential as a sustainable transportation solution. However, challenges related to cost and availability persist. Hybrid Electric Vehicles and e-fuels demonstrate considerable emission reductions, emerging as promising alternatives. Integrating CAVs with anticipatory routing strategies significantly reduces GHG emissions. Additionally, eco-driving practices and eco-routing strategies have a notable impact on NOx emissions and travel time. Comprehensive cost analysis provides valuable insights into the economic implications of various strategies and technologies. These findings offer guidance to various stakeholders in formulating effective strategies, behaviour changes, and policies for emission reduction and sustainable transportation development.