Uncertainty in Natural Language Processing: Sources, Quantification, and Applications

As a main field of artificial intelligence, NLP has achieved remarkable success via deep neural networks. Plenty of NLP tasks have been addressed in a unified manner, with various tasks being associated with each other through sharing the same paradigm. However, neural networks are black boxes and rely on probability computation. Making mistakes is inevitable. Therefore, estimating the reliability and trustworthiness (in other words, uncertainty) of neural networks becomes a key research direction, which plays a crucial role in reducing models' risks and making better decisions. Therefore, in this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of uncertainty-relevant works in the NLP field. Considering the data and paradigms characteristics, we first categorize the sources of uncertainty in natural language into three types, including input, system, and output. Then, we systemically review uncertainty quantification approaches and the main applications. Finally, we discuss the challenges of uncertainty estimation in NLP and discuss potential future directions, taking into account recent trends in the field. Though there have been a few surveys about uncertainty estimation, our work is the first to review uncertainty from the NLP perspective.