Enhancing Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting using Graph Attention and Frequency-Enhanced Mechanisms (2305.11526v2)

Abstract: The safe and stable operation of power systems is greatly challenged by the high variability and randomness of wind power in large-scale wind-power-integrated grids. Wind power forecasting is an effective solution to tackle this issue, with wind speed forecasting being an essential aspect. In this paper, a Graph-attentive Frequency-enhanced Spatial-Temporal Wind Speed Forecasting model based on graph attention and frequency-enhanced mechanisms, i.e., GFST-WSF, is proposed to improve the accuracy of short-term wind speed forecasting. The GFST-WSF comprises a Transformer architecture for temporal feature extraction and a Graph Attention Network (GAT) for spatial feature extraction. The GAT is specifically designed to capture the complex spatial dependencies among wind speed stations to effectively aggregate information from neighboring nodes in the graph, thus enhancing the spatial representation of the data. To model the time lag in wind speed correlation between adjacent wind farms caused by geographical factors, a dynamic complex adjacency matrix is formulated and utilized by the GAT. Benefiting from the effective spatio-temporal feature extraction and the deep architecture of the Transformer, the GFST-WSF outperforms other baselines in wind speed forecasting for the 6-24 hours ahead forecast horizon in case studies.