Quantifying the Benefit of Artificial Intelligence for Scientific Research (2304.10578v2)

Abstract: The ongoing AI revolution has the potential to change almost every line of work. As AI capabilities continue to improve in accuracy, robustness, and reach, AI may outperform and even replace human experts across many valuable tasks. Despite enormous effort devoted to understanding the impact of AI on labor and the economy and AI's recent successes in accelerating scientific discovery and progress, we lack a systematic understanding of how AI advances may benefit scientific research across disciplines and fields. Here, drawing from the literature on the future of work and the science of science, we develop a measurement framework to estimate both the direct use of AI and the potential benefit of AI in scientific research, applying natural language processing techniques to 74.6 million publications and 7.1 million patents. We find that the use of AI in research is widespread throughout the sciences, growing especially rapidly since 2015, and papers that use AI exhibit a citation premium, more likely to be highly cited both within and outside their disciplines. Moreover, our analysis reveals considerable potential for AI to benefit numerous scientific fields, yet a notable disconnect exists between AI education and its research applications, highlighting a mismatch between the supply of AI expertise and its demand in research. Lastly, we examine demographic disparities in AI's benefits across scientific disciplines and find that disciplines with a higher proportion of women or Black scientists tend to be associated with less benefit, suggesting that AI's growing impact on research may further exacerbate existing inequalities in science. As the connection between AI and scientific research deepens, our findings may become increasingly important, with implications for the equity and sustainability of the research enterprise.