Vehicle Trajectory Prediction based Predictive Collision Risk Assessment for Autonomous Driving in Highway Scenarios

For driving safely and efficiently in highway scenarios, autonomous vehicles (AVs) must be able to predict future behaviors of surrounding object vehicles (OVs), and assess collision risk accurately for reasonable decision-making. Aiming at autonomous driving in highway scenarios, a predictive collision risk assessment method based on trajectory prediction of OVs is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the vehicle trajectory prediction is formulated as a sequence generation task with long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder-decoder framework. Convolutional social pooling (CSP) and graph attention network (GAN) are adopted for extracting local spatial vehicle interactions and distant spatial vehicle interactions, respectively. Then, two basic risk metrics, time-to-collision (TTC) and minimal distance margin (MDM), are calculated between the predicted trajectory of OV and the candidate trajectory of AV. Consequently, a time-continuous risk function is constructed with temporal and spatial risk metrics. Finally, the vehicle trajectory prediction model CSP-GAN-LSTM is evaluated on two public highway datasets. The quantitative results indicate that the proposed CSP-GAN-LSTM model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods in terms of position prediction accuracy. Besides, simulation results in typical highway scenarios further validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed predictive collision risk assessment method.