Optimistic Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning with Few Samples and Tight Guarantees

Abstract: We consider reinforcement learning in an environment modeled by an episodic, finite, stage-dependent Markov decision process of horizon $H$ with $S$ states, and $A$ actions. The performance of an agent is measured by the regret after interacting with the environment for $T$ episodes. We propose an optimistic posterior sampling algorithm for reinforcement learning (OPSRL), a simple variant of posterior sampling that only needs a number of posterior samples logarithmic in $H$, $S$, $A$, and $T$ per state-action pair. For OPSRL we guarantee a high-probability regret bound of order at most $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{H<sup>3SAT})$ ignoring $\text{poly}\log(HSAT)$ terms. The key novel technical ingredient is a new sharp anti-concentration inequality for linear forms which may be of independent interest. Specifically, we extend the normal approximation-based lower bound for Beta distributions by Alfers and Dinges [1984] to Dirichlet distributions. Our bound matches the lower bound of order $\Omega(\sqrt{H<sup>3SAT})$, thereby answering the open problems raised by Agrawal and Jia [2017b] for the episodic setting.