Emergent Mind
A Synthetic Prediction Market for Estimating Confidence in Published Work
(2201.06924)
Published Dec 23, 2021
in
cs.CY
,
cs.AI
,
cs.IR
,
cs.LG
,
and
cs.MA
Abstract
Explainably estimating confidence in published scholarly work offers opportunity for faster and more robust scientific progress. We develop a synthetic prediction market to assess the credibility of published claims in the social and behavioral sciences literature. We demonstrate our system and detail our findings using a collection of known replication projects. We suggest that this work lays the foundation for a research agenda that creatively uses AI for peer review.
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