Dynamic predictability and spatio-temporal contexts in human mobility (2201.01376v2)

Abstract: Human travelling behaviours are markedly regular, to a large extent, predictable, and mostly driven by biological necessities (\eg sleeping, eating) and social constructs (\eg school schedules, synchronisation of labour). Not surprisingly, such predictability is influenced by an array of factors ranging in scale from individual (\eg preference, choices) and social (\eg household, groups) all the way to global scale (\eg mobility restrictions in a pandemic). In this work, we explore how spatio-temporal patterns in individual-level mobility, which we refer to as \emph{predictability states}, carry a large degree of information regarding the nature of the regularities in mobility. Our findings indicate the existence of contextual and activity signatures in predictability states, pointing towards the potential for more sophisticated, data-driven approaches to short-term, higher-order mobility predictions beyond frequentist/probabilistic methods.