Dynamics of Opinions with Bounded Confidence in Social Cliques: Emergence of Fluctuations

In this paper, we study the evolution of opinions over social networks with bounded confidence in social cliques. Node initial opinions are independently and identically distributed; at each time step, nodes review the average opinions of a randomly selected local clique. The clique averages may represent local group pressures on peers. Then nodes update their opinions under bounded confidence: only when the difference between an agent individual opinion and the corresponding local clique pressure is below a threshold, this agent opinion is updated according to the DeGroot rule as a weighted average of the two values. As a result, this opinion dynamics is a generalization of the classical Deffuant-Weisbuch model in which only pairwise interactions take place. First of all, we prove conditions under which all node opinions converge to finite limits. We show that in the limits the event that all nodes achieve a consensus, and the event that all nodes achieve pairwise distinct limits, i.e., social disagreements, are both nontrivial events. Next, we show that opinion fluctuations may take place in the sense that at least one agent in the network fails to hold a converging opinion trajectory. In fact, we prove that this fluctuation event happens with a strictly positive probability, and also constructively present an initial value event under which the fluctuation event arises with probability one. These results add to the understanding of the role of bounded confidence in social opinion dynamics, and the possibility of fluctuation reveals that bringing in cliques in Deffuant-Weisbuch models have fundamentally changed the behavior of such opinion dynamical processes.