Neural Networks for Dengue Prediction: A Systematic Review (2106.12905v1)

Abstract: Due to a lack of treatments and universal vaccine, early forecasts of Dengue are an important tool for disease control. Neural networks are powerful predictive models that have made contributions to many areas of public health. In this systematic review, we provide an introduction to the neural networks relevant to Dengue forecasting and review their applications in the literature. The objective is to help inform model design for future work. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we conduct a systematic search of studies that use neural networks to forecast Dengue in human populations. We summarize the relative performance of neural networks and comparator models, model architectures and hyper-parameters, as well as choices of input features. Nineteen papers were included. Most studies implement shallow neural networks using historical Dengue incidence and meteorological input features. Prediction horizons tend to be short. Building on the strengths of neural networks, most studies use granular observations at the city or sub-national level. Performance of neural networks relative to comparators such as Support Vector Machines varies across study contexts. The studies suggest that neural networks can provide good predictions of Dengue and should be included in the set of candidate models. The use of convolutional, recurrent, or deep networks is relatively unexplored but offers promising avenues for further research, as does the use of a broader set of input features such as social media or mobile phone data.