MIDMod-OSN: A Microscopic-level Information Diffusion Model for Online Social Networks

As online social networks continue to be commonly used for the dissemination of information to the public, understanding the phenomena that govern information diffusion is crucial for many security and safety-related applications, such as maximizing information spread and misinformation containment during crises and natural disasters. In this study, we hypothesize that the features that contribute to information diffusion in online social networks are significantly influenced by the type of event being studied. We classify Twitter events as either informative or trending and then explore the node-to-node influence dynamics associated with information spread. We build a model based on Bayesian Logistic Regression for learning and prediction and Random Forests for feature selection. Experimental results from real-world data sets show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion prediction models, achieving 93% accuracy in informative events and 86% in trending events. We observed that the models for informative and trending events differ significantly, both in the diffusion process and in the user features that govern the diffusion. Our findings show that followers play an important role in the diffusion process and it is possible to use the diffusion and OSN behavior of users for predicting the trending character of a message without having to count the number of reactions.