Predictive analysis of Bitcoin price considering social sentiments (2001.10343v1)

Abstract: We report on the use of sentiment analysis on news and social media to analyze and predict the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the leading cryptocurrency and has the highest market capitalization among digital currencies. Predicting Bitcoin values may help understand and predict potential market movement and future growth of the technology. Unlike (mostly) repeating phenomena like weather, cryptocurrency values do not follow a repeating pattern and mere past value of Bitcoin does not reveal any secret of future Bitcoin value. Humans follow general sentiments and technical analysis to invest in the market. Hence considering people's sentiment can give a good degree of prediction. We focus on using social sentiment as a feature to predict future Bitcoin value, and in particular, consider Google News and Reddit posts. We find that social sentiment gives a good estimate of how future Bitcoin values may move. We achieve the lowest test RMSE of 434.87 using an LSTM that takes as inputs the historical price of various cryptocurrencies, the sentiment of news articles and the sentiment of Reddit posts.