Predicting Future Opioid Incidences Today

Abstract: According to the Center of Disease Control (CDC), the Opioid epidemic has claimed more than 72,000 lives in the US in 2017 alone. In spite of various efforts at the local, state and federal level, the impact of the epidemic is becoming progressively worse, as evidenced by the fact that the number of Opioid related deaths increased by 12.5\% between 2016 and 2017. Predictive analytics can play an important role in combating the epidemic by providing decision making tools to stakeholders at multiple levels - from health care professionals to policy makers to first responders. Generating Opioid incidence heat maps from past data, aid these stakeholders to visualize the profound impact of the Opioid epidemic. Such post-fact creation of the heat map provides only retrospective information, and as a result, may not be as useful for preventive action in the current or future time-frames. In this paper, we present a novel deep neural architecture, which learns subtle spatio-temporal variations in Opioid incidences data and accurately predicts future heat maps. We evaluated the efficacy of our model on two open source datasets- (i) The Cincinnati Heroin Overdose dataset, and (ii) Connecticut Drug Related Death Dataset.