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On the Art and Science of Machine Learning Explanations (1810.02909v4)

Published 5 Oct 2018 in stat.ML and cs.LG

Abstract: This text discusses several popular explanatory methods that go beyond the error measurements and plots traditionally used to assess machine learning models. Some of the explanatory methods are accepted tools of the trade while others are rigorously derived and backed by long-standing theory. The methods, decision tree surrogate models, individual conditional expectation (ICE) plots, local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), partial dependence plots, and Shapley explanations, vary in terms of scope, fidelity, and suitable application domain. Along with descriptions of these methods, this text presents real-world usage recommendations supported by a use case and public, in-depth software examples for reproducibility.

Citations (31)

Summary

  • The paper introduces a suite of explainability techniques such as surrogate decision trees, ICE plots, LIME, and Tree SHAP to clarify complex model behaviors.
  • It demonstrates how combining global and local methods enhances transparency by accurately attributing features and validating model decisions in real-world applications.
  • The study emphasizes balancing interpretability with model fidelity, providing actionable guidelines for ethical, compliant, and trustworthy AI deployment.

Explainable Machine Learning: Techniques, Recommendations, and Responsibilities

This paper, authored by Patrick Hall, provides a comprehensive examination of several methods used to elucidate the often opaque mechanisms underlying machine learning models, emphasizing the importance of explainability in ensuring model transparency, compliance, and trust. The paper specifically discusses prevalent explanatory techniques including surrogate decision tree models, Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), Partial Dependence Plots, and Shapley values.

Explanatory Techniques

  • Surrogate Decision Trees: These are employed to approximate the decision boundaries of sophisticated models. They offer visual insights into feature importance and interactions, which can be invaluable for interpreting complex models. The surrogate tree's interpretability is balanced against the potential loss of fidelity compared to the original model.
  • Partial Dependence and ICE Plots: Partial Dependence Plots average the predictions over the distribution of the feature of interest, providing a global view; ICE plots offer a local perspective by showing how individual observations respond to changes in a feature. Their combination enables detection of interactions and verification of monotonic relationships.
  • LIME: LIME elucidates individual predictions by fitting a simple model locally around the instance of interest. While it enhances interpretability through sparsity, its reliance on local fidelity necessitates careful validation to ensure trustworthiness.
  • Tree SHAP: Shapley values, particularly efficient tree-based implementations, provide comprehensive, locally accurate feature attributions that are theoretically guaranteed to be consistent.

Numerical Insights and Real-world Example

The paper showcases applied use cases, including a credit scoring scenario using the UCI credit card dataset, where the described techniques are leveraged for interpretability and transparency of a gradient boosting machine. The model achieves a validation AUC of 0.781, with models constrained to monotonic relationships, showcasing practical adaptations of these techniques in real-world applications. Importantly, Shapley values compute local explanations with variable contributions aligning with feature importance.

Implications and Considerations

The paper underscores the critical role of explanations in fostering human understanding, regulatory compliance, and ethical AI deployment. It addresses the potential misuse of explanatory methods as shields for black-box models. Practical recommendations include:

  • Combining multiple techniques for comprehensive insights.
  • Evaluating model fidelity versus interpretability trade-offs.
  • Deploying methods in a manner suitable for real-time applications.

Future Outlook

The discussion anticipates advances in interpretable models and recommends integrating debugging and fairness assessments alongside explanation methods to build trustworthy AI systems. Future work may extend to developing embedded, interpretable solutions that inherently align with ethical norms and societal regulations.

Conclusion

The paper advances the dialogue on explainable AI by laying out a structured approach to interpret machine learning models, incorporating both theoretical and practical dimensions. It emphasizes that understanding and trust in AI are achievable when model explanations are responsibly deployed, aligning with the broader goals of accountability and transparency in AI technologies.

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