Which groups are amenable to proving exponent two for matrix multiplication?

The Cohn-Umans group-theoretic approach to matrix multiplication suggests embedding matrix multiplication into group algebra multiplication, and bounding $\omega$ in terms of the representation theory of the host group. This framework is general enough to capture the best known upper bounds on $\omega$ and is conjectured to be powerful enough to prove $\omega = 2$, although finding a suitable group and constructing such an embedding has remained elusive. Recently it was shown, by a generalization of the proof of the Cap Set Conjecture, that abelian groups of bounded exponent cannot prove $\omega = 2$ in this framework, which ruled out a family of potential constructions in the literature. In this paper we study nonabelian groups as potential hosts for an embedding. We prove two main results: (1) We show that a large class of nonabelian groupsnilpotent groups of bounded exponent satisfying a mild additional conditioncannot prove $\omega = 2$ in this framework. We do this by showing that the shrinkage rate of powers of the augmentation ideal is similar to the shrinkage rate of the number of functions over $(\mathbb{Z}/p\mathbb{Z})^n$ that are degree $d$ polynomials; our proof technique can be seen as a generalization of the polynomial method used to resolve the Cap Set Conjecture. (2) We show that symmetric groups $Sn$ cannot prove nontrivial bounds on $\omega$ when the embedding is via three Young subgroupssubgroups of the form $S{k1} \times S{k2} \times \dotsb \times S{k\ell}$which is a natural strategy that includes all known constructions in $Sn$. By developing techniques for negative results in this paper, we hope to catalyze a fruitful interplay between the search for constructions proving bounds on $\omega$ and methods for ruling them out.