Evaluation of Uncertain Inference Models I: PROSPECTOR

Abstract: This paper examines the accuracy of the PROSPECTOR model for uncertain reasoning. PROSPECTOR's solutions for a large number of computer-generated inference networks were compared to those obtained from probability theory and minimum cross-entropy calculations. PROSPECTOR's answers were generally accurate for a restricted subset of problems that are consistent with its assumptions. However, even within this subset, we identified conditions under which PROSPECTOR's performance deteriorates.