Limits on the Benefits of Energy Storage for Renewable Integration (1109.3841v2)

Abstract: The high variability of renewable energy resources presents significant challenges to the operation of the electric power grid. Conventional generators can be used to mitigate this variability but are costly to operate and produce carbon emissions. Energy storage provides a more environmentally friendly alternative, but is costly to deploy in large amounts. This paper studies the limits on the benefits of energy storage to renewable energy: How effective is storage at mitigating the adverse effects of renewable energy variability? How much storage is needed? What are the optimal control policies for operating storage? To provide answers to these questions, we first formulate the power flow in a single-bus power system with storage as an infinite horizon stochastic program. We find the optimal policies for arbitrary net renewable generation process when the cost function is the average conventional generation (environmental cost) and when it is the average loss of load probability (reliability cost). We obtain more refined results by considering the multi-timescale operation of the power system. We view the power flow in each timescale as the superposition of a predicted (deterministic) component and an prediction error (residual) component and formulate the residual power flow problem as an infinite horizon dynamic program. Assuming that the net generation prediction error is an IID process, we quantify the asymptotic benefits of storage. With the additional assumption of Laplace distributed prediction error, we obtain closed form expressions for the stationary distribution of storage and conventional generation. Finally, we propose a two-threshold policy that trades off conventional generation saving with loss of load probability. We illustrate our results and corroborate the IID and Laplace assumptions numerically using datasets from CAISO and NREL.