Random design analysis of ridge regression

This work gives a simultaneous analysis of both the ordinary least squares estimator and the ridge regression estimator in the random design setting under mild assumptions on the covariate/response distributions. In particular, the analysis provides sharp results on the out-of-sample'' prediction error, as opposed to thein-sample'' (fixed design) error. The analysis also reveals the effect of errors in the estimated covariance structure, as well as the effect of modeling errors, neither of which effects are present in the fixed design setting. The proofs of the main results are based on a simple decomposition lemma combined with concentration inequalities for random vectors and matrices.